Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 51.19%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 22.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.09%) and 1-2 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.21%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 1-0 (8.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.