Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 41.25%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 29.91% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.14%) and 2-1 (8.06%). The likeliest Cerro win was 0-1 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Montevideo Wanderers in this match.