Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 54.8%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 20.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.93%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (7.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.