Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 44.6%. A draw had a probability of 28.3% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 27.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.94%) and 2-1 (8.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.02%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.