Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 39.55%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.8%) and 0-2 (7.78%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 (11.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.