Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 53.28%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 20.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.24%) and 2-1 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (8.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood.