Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 39.33%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 33.14% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (7.23%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (10.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.