Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 63.88%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 15.53%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.11%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.78%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.