Brasileiro | Gameweek 38

Dec 7, 2023 at 12.30am UK

Arena Fonte Nova

Bahia
4 - 1
Atletico Mineiro

Oliveira Souza (11', 11'), Luciano (45+7', 45+7'), Thaciano (67', 67'), Ademir (90+2', 90+2')
Hugo (61'), Hugo (61'), Ademir (90+4'), Ademir (90+4')

FT(HT: 4-2)

Paulinho (36', 36')
Rubens (58'), Rubens (58'), Paulinho (85'), Paulinho (85')

Coverage of the Brasileiro clash between Bahia and Atletico Mineiro.

Form, Standings, Stats

Bahia

All competitions

Last Game: America Mineiro 3-2 Bahia
Sunday, December 3 at 9.30pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Atletico Mineiro

All competitions

Last Game: Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Sao Paulo
Sunday, December 3 at 12am in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 38.25%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 34.68% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.23%) and 2-0 (6.82%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.

Result
Bahia	Draw	Atletico Mineiro
38.25% ( 0.31)	27.07% ( -0.07)	34.68% ( -0.23)

Both teams to score 50.58% (

0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.25% (

0.26)

54.74% (

-0.26)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.94% (

0.22)

76.06% (

-0.22)

Bahia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.2% (

0.3)

27.79% (

-0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.62% (

0.38)

63.38% (

-0.39)

Atletico Mineiro Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.05% (

-0.02)

29.95% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.94% (

-0.02)

66.06% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Bahia 38.24%

Atletico Mineiro 34.67%

Draw 27.07%

Bahia	Draw	Atletico Mineiro
1-0 @ 10.65% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.23% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 6.82% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 3.51% ( 0.05) 3-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.12% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 1.94% Total : 38.24%	1-1 @ 12.85% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.32% ( -0.09) 2-2 @ 4.96% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.94% Total : 27.07%	0-1 @ 10.03% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 7.75% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 6.05% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 3.11% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 1.99% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 2.37% Total : 34.67%