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Copa Libertadores

Penarol
Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 11, 2024 at 1am UK
Estadio Campeon del Siglo

Penarol
5 - 0
Caracas

Silvera (16', 16', 25', 25', 64', 64'), Mendez (32', 32'), Darias (45', 45')
Darias (18'), Darias (18'), Hernandez (59'), Hernandez (59')
FT(HT: 8-0)

Ortega (19'), Ortega (19')
Casiani (73'), Casiani (73')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Penarol and Caracas.

Form, Standings, Stats

Penarol

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Maldonado 1-2 Penarol
Sunday, April 7 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Caracas

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Caracas 1-4 Atletico Mineiro
Thursday, April 4 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 45.31%. A draw had a probability of 28.2% and a win for Caracas had a probability of 26.47%.

The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.15%) and 2-1 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.98%), while for a Caracas win it was 0-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.

Result
PenarolDrawCaracas
45.31% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)28.21% (0.0020000000000024 0)26.47% (0.0069999999999979 0.01)
Both teams to score 44.02%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
38.57% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)61.43% (0.0039999999999978 0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
18.69% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)81.31% (0.0039999999999907 0)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.89% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)27.11% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.5% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)62.5% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Caracas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60.39% (0.0049999999999955 0)39.6% (-0.0040000000000049 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.71% (0.0039999999999978 0)76.29% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Score Analysis
    Penarol 45.31%
    Caracas 26.47%
    Draw 28.2%
PenarolDrawCaracas
1-0 @ 14.01%
2-0 @ 9.15% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
2-1 @ 8.47% (-0.0010000000000012 -0)
3-0 @ 3.98% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
3-1 @ 3.69% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 1.71%
4-0 @ 1.3%
4-1 @ 1.2%
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 45.31%
1-1 @ 12.98%
0-0 @ 10.73%
2-2 @ 3.92%
Other @ 0.57%
Total : 28.2%
0-1 @ 9.95% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-2 @ 6.01% (0.00099999999999945 0)
0-2 @ 4.61% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 1.86%
0-3 @ 1.42% (0.00099999999999989 0)
2-3 @ 1.21%
Other @ 1.42%
Total : 26.47%