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Copa Libertadores

Sao Paulo
Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Aug 22, 2024 at 11pm UK
Estadio Cicero Pompeu de Toledo

Sao Paulo
2 - 0
Nacional

Bobadilla (31'), Calleri (47')
Gustavo (44'), Antonio (90+14')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Baez (90+13'), Lozano (90+15')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Copa Libertadores clash between Sao Paulo and Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sao Paulo

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: Palmeiras 2-1 Sao Paulo
Sunday, August 18 at 8pm in Brasileiro

Nacional

All competitions
Copa Libertadores
Last Game: River Plate 3-3 Nacional
Sunday, August 18 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 62.56%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 15.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.62%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.24%), while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (5.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.

Result
Sao PauloDrawNacional
62.56% (-0.504 -0.5)21.54% (0.29 0.29)15.9% (0.221 0.22)
Both teams to score 48.56% (-0.407 -0.41)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.03% (-0.802 -0.8)47.97% (0.809 0.81)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
29.86% (-0.742 -0.74)70.15% (0.75 0.75)
Sao Paulo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.25% (-0.41799999999999 -0.42)14.75% (0.424 0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
57.02% (-0.809 -0.81)42.98% (0.816 0.82)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
56.97% (-0.193 -0.19)43.04% (0.199 0.2)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
20.68% (-0.162 -0.16)79.32% (0.17 0.17)
Score Analysis
    Sao Paulo 62.55%
    Nacional 15.9%
    Draw 21.54%
Sao PauloDrawNacional
1-0 @ 12.14% (0.22 0.22)
2-0 @ 11.62% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
2-1 @ 9.8% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
3-0 @ 7.42% (-0.085 -0.09)
3-1 @ 6.25% (-0.107 -0.11)
4-0 @ 3.55% (-0.096 -0.1)
4-1 @ 2.99% (-0.097 -0.1)
3-2 @ 2.64% (-0.059 -0.06)
5-0 @ 1.36% (-0.057 -0.06)
4-2 @ 1.26% (-0.048 -0.05)
5-1 @ 1.15% (-0.055 -0.06)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 62.55%
1-1 @ 10.24% (0.14 0.14)
0-0 @ 6.35% (0.21 0.21)
2-2 @ 4.13% (-0.031000000000001 -0.03)
Other @ 0.82%
Total : 21.54%
0-1 @ 5.35% (0.149 0.15)
1-2 @ 4.32% (0.032999999999999 0.03)
0-2 @ 2.26% (0.051 0.05)
1-3 @ 1.21% (0.0029999999999999 0)
2-3 @ 1.16% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 1.6%
Total : 15.9%

How you voted: Sao Paulo vs Nacional

Sao Paulo
89.5%
Draw
10.5%
Nacional
0.0%
38
Head to Head
Aug 15, 2024 11pm
Round of 16 1st Leg
Nacional
0-0
Sao Paulo
Polenta (13'), Pereyra (86')
Luciano (25'), Arboleda (36'), Gustavo (49'), Franco (58')
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