Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 44.38%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 28.5% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (8.42%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Sao Paulo
28.5% ( 0.25)	27.12% ( 0.32)	44.38% ( -0.57)

Both teams to score 48.25% (

-0.76)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.32% (

-1.05)

56.68% (

1.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.36% (

-0.85)

77.64% (

0.85)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.68% (

-0.37)

35.32% (

0.36)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.93% (

-0.38)

72.07% (

0.38)

Sao Paulo Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.6% (

-0.75)

25.4% (

0.75)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.79% (

-1.04)

60.21% (

1.04)

Score Analysis

Nacional 28.5%

Sao Paulo 44.38%

Draw 27.11%

Nacional	Draw	Sao Paulo
1-0 @ 9.34% ( 0.28) 2-1 @ 6.66% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.1) 3-1 @ 2.31% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 1.69% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.07% Total : 28.5%	1-1 @ 12.79% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 8.97% ( 0.36) 2-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.11%	0-1 @ 12.29% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 8.77% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 8.42% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 4.01% ( -0.14) 0-3 @ 3.85% ( -0.1) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.09) 1-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.27% Total : 44.38%