Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 50.11%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 23.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.05%) and 1-2 (9.04%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 1-0 (8.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nacional would win this match.