Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 31, 2024 at 1am UK

Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Libertad
2 - 1
Nacional

Cardozo (29', 29'), Silva (41', 41')
Bareiro (38'), Bareiro (38'), Cardozo (48'), Cardozo (48'), Jacquet (70'), Jacquet (70'), Merlini (72'), Merlini (72'), Cardozo (83'), Cardozo (83')

FT(HT: 4-2)

Romero (13', 13')
Gonzalez (40'), Gonzalez (40'), Bentancourt (72'), Bentancourt (72'), Pereyra (73'), Pereyra (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Copa Libertadores clash between Club Libertad and Nacional, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Club Libertad

Last Game: River Plate 2-0 Libertad
Wednesday, May 15 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Nacional

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Nacional 1-0 Danubio
Saturday, May 25 at 10pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 41.65%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 31.95% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7.38%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Club Libertad would win this match.

Result
Club Libertad	Draw	Nacional
41.65% ( 0.1)	26.41% ( 0.29)	31.95% ( -0.39)

Both teams to score 52% (

-1.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.37% (

-1.29)

52.63% (

1.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.72% (

-1.11)

74.28% (

1.11)

Club Libertad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.03% (

-0.53)

24.97% (

0.52)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.38% (

-0.73)

59.62% (

0.73)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.31% (

-0.9)

30.69% (

0.9)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.06% (

-1.08)

66.94% (

1.08)

Score Analysis

Club Libertad 41.64%

Nacional 31.95%

Draw 26.41%

Club Libertad	Draw	Nacional
1-0 @ 10.63% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 8.71% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 7.38% ( 0.15) 3-1 @ 4.03% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 3.41% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.52% Total : 41.64%	1-1 @ 12.56% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 7.66% ( 0.38) 2-2 @ 5.15% ( -0.15) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.41%	0-1 @ 9.05% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 7.42% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 5.35% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.92% ( -0.12) 0-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.08% Total : 31.95%