Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 8, 2024 at 1am UK

Estadio Gran Parque Central

Nacional
2 - 2
River Plate

Carneiro (71' pen., 77', 78' pen., 79')
Pereyra (3'), Antoni (10'), Pereyra (13'), Antoni (19'), Sanabria (38'), Sanabria (42'), Lozano (48'), Lozano (49'), Romero (52'), Romero (54'), Polenta (61'), Polenta (66'), Carneiro (71'), Carneiro (81')

FT(HT: 0-4)

Borja (4', 8'), Colidio (30', 31')
Colidio (29'), Colidio (32'), Herrera (54'), Herrera (55')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Nacional and River Plate.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Nacional 4-2 Racing
Saturday, May 4 at 12am in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

River Plate

All competitions

Copa Libertadores

Last Game: Libertad 1-2 River Plate
Thursday, April 25 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 48.64%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 26.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (8.47%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (7.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.

Result
Nacional	Draw	River Plate
26.52% ( 0.18)	24.85% ( -0.01)	48.64% ( -0.17)

Both teams to score 53.71% (

0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.09% (

0.19)

48.91% (

-0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29% (

0.17)

71% (

-0.17)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.25% (

0.25)

32.75% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.69% (

0.27)

69.31% (

-0.27)

River Plate Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.86% (

0.01)

20.14% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.58% (

0.01)

52.42% (

-0.01)

Score Analysis

Nacional 26.52%

River Plate 48.64%

Draw 24.84%

Nacional	Draw	River Plate
1-0 @ 7.36% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 4.11% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.45% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.96% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 1.53% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.52% Total : 26.52%	1-1 @ 11.79% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.6% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.84%	0-1 @ 10.57% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 9.45% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.47% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 5.05% ( -0) 0-3 @ 4.52% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.82% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 2.02% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.81% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.79% Total : 48.64%