Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 54.51%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 19.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.22%) and 1-2 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.89%), while for a Instituto win it was 1-0 (7.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.