Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Instituto win with a probability of 38.97%. A win for Barracas Central had a probability of 31.42% and a draw had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Instituto win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.71%) and 1-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Barracas Central win was 1-0 (11.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.41%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.