Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 48.27%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Barracas Central had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.29%) and 1-2 (8.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.74%), while for a Barracas Central win it was 1-0 (9.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.