Uruguayan Primera Division
Aug 4, 2024 at 7pm UK
Estadio Gran Parque Central
Penarol

Nacional
1 - 1
Penarol

Petit Abad (79')
Izquierdo (32'), Mejia (65'), Silvera (75')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Fernandez (34')
Hernandez (38'), Fernandez (51'), Rodriguez (64')
Batista (88'), Cristoforo (88')
Nacional win 0-0 on penalties
Coverage of the Uruguayan Primera Division clash between Nacional and Penarol.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last Game: Nacional 1-0 Boston River
Sunday, July 28 at 7pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Penarol

All competitions
Last Game: Penarol 1-0 Defensor
Saturday, July 27 at 9.30pm in Uruguayan Primera Division

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 42.74%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 30.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Penarol win was 0-1 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.

Result
NacionalDrawPenarol
42.74% (-0.146 -0.15)26.85% (-0.067 -0.07)30.41% (0.211 0.21)
Both teams to score 50.03% (0.29 0.29)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.12% (0.327 0.33)54.88% (-0.329 -0.33)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.83% (0.27 0.27)76.17% (-0.27199999999999 -0.27)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.58% (0.072999999999993 0.07)25.42% (-0.074999999999999 -0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.77% (0.098999999999997 0.1)60.23% (-0.102 -0.1)
Penarol Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.08% (0.32299999999999 0.32)32.92% (-0.325 -0.33)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.5% (0.358 0.36)69.5% (-0.36 -0.36)
Score Analysis
    Nacional 42.74%
    Penarol 30.41%
    Draw 26.85%
NacionalDrawPenarol
1-0 @ 11.46% (-0.12 -0.12)
2-1 @ 8.72% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-0 @ 7.85% (-0.067 -0.07)
3-1 @ 3.98% (0.01 0.01)
3-0 @ 3.58% (-0.023 -0.02)
3-2 @ 2.21% (0.025 0.03)
4-1 @ 1.36% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
4-0 @ 1.23% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 2.34%
Total : 42.74%
1-1 @ 12.73% (-0.02 -0.02)
0-0 @ 8.37% (-0.107 -0.11)
2-2 @ 4.85% (0.045 0.04)
Other @ 0.9%
Total : 26.85%
0-1 @ 9.3% (-0.036 -0.04)
1-2 @ 7.07% (0.05 0.05)
0-2 @ 5.16% (0.024999999999999 0.02)
1-3 @ 2.62% (0.042 0.04)
0-3 @ 1.91% (0.027 0.03)
2-3 @ 1.79% (0.032 0.03)
Other @ 2.54%
Total : 30.41%

Head to Head
Mar 29, 2024 7pm
Gameweek 6
Penarol
0-0
Nacional
Ramirez (79')
Carneiro (38'), Sanabria (55'), Mejia (59'), Bentancourt (80'), Oliva (80'), Cairus (90+3')
Nov 11, 2023 7.30pm
Gameweek 9
Nacional
2-2
Penarol
Ramirez (30'), Baez (63')
Baez (63'), Baez (64'), Rodriguez (73')
Fagundez (35'), Suarez (35'), Suarez (36')
Neris (48'), Hernandez (87')
Coelho (15'), Gonzalez (31'), Rodriguez (72')
Coelho (35')
Apr 1, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 9
Penarol
2-0
Nacional
Mendez (78'), Laquintana (90')
Sep 4, 2022 7.30pm
Gameweek 4
Nacional
3-1
Penarol
Laborda (45+1'), Suarez (53'), Candido (76')
Lozano (12'), Zabala (90+7')
Mendez (61')
Rak (14'), Rossi (77'), Lozano (86'), Da Silveira (90+8')
Feb 27, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 4
Penarol
1-0
Nacional
Ceppelini (32' pen.)
Arias (73')
Ceppelini (40')

Trezza (42'), Luis Rodriguez (49'), Gigliotti (77'), Trasante (90+4')
Gigliotti (82')