Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 59.29%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Racing de Montevideo had a probability of 16.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.22%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.13%), while for a Racing de Montevideo win it was 0-1 (6.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.