Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 55.4%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 18.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.81%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 0-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.