Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 41.76%. A win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 29.64% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.22%) and 1-2 (8.17%). The likeliest Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 (10.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fenix would win this match.