Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fenix win with a probability of 40.13%. A draw had a probability of 31.8% and a win for Cerro had a probability of 28.09%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fenix win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.45%) and 2-1 (6.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.31%), while for a Cerro win it was 0-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.