Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 42.02%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.25%) and 2-1 (8.23%). The likeliest Cerro win was 0-1 (10.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.