Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 42.29%. A win for Rampla Juniors had a probability of 29.93% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.45%) and 0-2 (8.09%). The likeliest Rampla Juniors win was 1-0 (10.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.