Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 53.16%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Rampla Juniors had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.94%), while for a Rampla Juniors win it was 0-1 (7.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.