Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 52.51%. A draw had a probability of 27.3% and a win for Fenix had a probability of 20.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.34%) and 1-2 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Fenix win it was 1-0 (8.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.