Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Fenix had a probability of 30.62% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.94%) and 1-2 (7.8%). The likeliest Fenix win was 1-0 (11.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.