Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 35.97%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 33.48% and a draw had a probability of 30.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.09%) and 2-1 (7.03%). The likeliest Cerro win was 0-1 (13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerro Largo would win this match.