Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 35.22%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 33.34% and a draw had a probability of 31.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.01%) and 1-2 (6.67%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 (13.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 0-0 (14.4%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.