Copa Sudamericana | Round of 32 | 1st Leg

Jul 17, 2024 at 11pm UK

Estadio Dr. Nicolas Leoz

Libertad
2 - 0
U. Catolica

(Club Libertad win 3-1 on aggregate)

Cardozo (49'), Sanabria (74')
Caballero (42')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Nieto (26'), Rodriguez (33'), Grillo (82')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Copa Sudamericana clash between Club Libertad and Universidad Catolica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Club Libertad

Last Game: Libertad 2-1 Nacional
Friday, May 31 at 1am in Copa Libertadores

Universidad Catolica

Last Game: Cruzeiro 1-0 U. Catolica
Friday, May 31 at 1am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 46%. A win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 28.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Universidad Catolica win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Club Libertad would win this match.

Result
Club Libertad	Draw	Universidad Catolica
46% ( 0.11)	25.17% ( 0.25)	28.82% ( -0.37)

Both teams to score 54.38% (

-1.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.17% (

-1.27)

48.82% (

1.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.08% (

-1.17)

70.92% (

1.16)

Club Libertad Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.75% (

-0.47)

21.24% (

0.47)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.85% (

-0.74)

54.15% (

0.73)

Universidad Catolica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.05% (

-0.92)

30.94% (

0.91)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.75% (

-1.09)

67.24% (

1.08)

Score Analysis

Club Libertad 46%

Universidad Catolica 28.82%

Draw 25.17%

Club Libertad	Draw	Universidad Catolica
1-0 @ 10.18% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 7.89% ( 0.19) 3-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 4.07% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.8% ( -0.12) 4-1 @ 1.85% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.58% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.51% Total : 46%	1-1 @ 11.94% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 6.57% ( 0.34) 2-2 @ 5.43% ( -0.15) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.17%	0-1 @ 7.71% ( 0.21) 1-2 @ 7.01% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.74% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.11) 0-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.04) Other @ 2.96% Total : 28.82%