Copa Sudamericana | First Round
Mar 7, 2025 at 2am UK
Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo

U. Catolica
0 - 0
Aucas

FT(HT: 0-1)

Juan Vazquez (60'), Juan Vazquez (60'), Jairo Ontaneda Campos (63'), Jairo Ontaneda Campos (63')
U. Catolica win 4-2 on penalties
Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana First Round clash between Universidad Catolica and Aucas.

Form, Standings, Stats

Universidad Catolica

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Last Game: U. Catolica 1-1 Libertad
Wednesday, July 24 at 11pm in Copa Sudamericana
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Aucas

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Last Game: Nacional 3-0 Aucas
Friday, February 16 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Universidad Catolica win with a probability of 54.82%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Aucas had a probability of 22.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Universidad Catolica win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for an Aucas win it was 1-2 (5.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.

Result
Universidad CatolicaDrawAucas
54.82% (0.052 0.05)22.8% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)22.37% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)
Both teams to score 55.85% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.07% (0.027999999999999 0.03)43.93% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.69% (0.027999999999999 0.03)66.31% (-0.027999999999992 -0.03)
Universidad Catolica Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
84.08% (0.027999999999992 0.03)15.92% (-0.026 -0.03)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
54.82% (0.049999999999997 0.05)45.17% (-0.048999999999999 -0.05)
Aucas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
66.43% (-0.015000000000001 -0.02)33.57% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.78% (-0.016999999999999 -0.02)70.22% (0.01700000000001 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Universidad Catolica 54.82%
    Aucas 22.37%
    Draw 22.8%
Universidad CatolicaDrawAucas
2-1 @ 9.85% (0.0020000000000007 0)
1-0 @ 9.82% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-0 @ 9.02% (0.0059999999999985 0.01)
3-1 @ 6.03% (0.0070000000000006 0.01)
3-0 @ 5.53% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 3.29% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 2.77% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
4-0 @ 2.54% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
4-2 @ 1.51% (0.0029999999999999 0)
5-1 @ 1.02% (0.0029999999999999 0)
5-0 @ 0.93% (0.003 0)
Other @ 2.5%
Total : 54.82%
1-1 @ 10.72%
2-2 @ 5.38% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-0 @ 5.34% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-3 @ 1.2%
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 22.8%
1-2 @ 5.85% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
0-1 @ 5.83% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-2 @ 3.18% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.13% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
2-3 @ 1.96% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
0-3 @ 1.16% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.26%
Total : 22.37%