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Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | First Round | 1st Leg
Feb 9, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Aucas
1 - 0
Nacional

Medina (85' pen., 85' pen.)
Gonzalez (12'), Gonzalez (13'), Sanabria (33'), Sanabria (33'), Canga (90+2'), Canga (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Orzusa (28'), Orzusa (28'), Silva (53'), Silva (53'), Duarte (66'), Duarte (66'), Santacruz (71'), Santacruz (72'), Ojeda (83'), Ojeda (83')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between Aucas and Club Nacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aucas

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Last Game: Flamengo 4-0 Aucas
Thursday, June 29 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores
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Club Nacional

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Last Game: Cristal 5-1 Nacional
Wednesday, March 1 at 12am in Copa Libertadores
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aucas win with a probability of 44.96%. A win for Club Nacional had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aucas win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.82%). The likeliest Club Nacional win was 0-1 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Aucas in this match.

Result
AucasDrawClub Nacional
44.96% (0.015999999999998 0.02)25.56% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)29.49% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
Both teams to score 53.55% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.9% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)50.1% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.93% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)72.07% (-0.0019999999999953 -0)
Aucas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.75% (0.0099999999999909 0.01)22.25% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
44.32% (0.013999999999996 0.01)55.69% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Club Nacional Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.88% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)31.12% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.55% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)67.45% (0.0090000000000003 0.01)
Score Analysis
    Aucas 44.95%
    Club Nacional 29.49%
    Draw 25.55%
AucasDrawClub Nacional
1-0 @ 10.4%
2-1 @ 9.13% (0.00099999999999945 0)
2-0 @ 7.82% (0.0030000000000001 0)
3-1 @ 4.57% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-0 @ 3.92% (0.0020000000000002 0)
3-2 @ 2.67% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-1 @ 1.72% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-0 @ 1.47% (0.00099999999999989 0)
4-2 @ 1% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 44.95%
1-1 @ 12.14%
0-0 @ 6.92% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
2-2 @ 5.33% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-3 @ 1.04%
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.55%
0-1 @ 8.08% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
1-2 @ 7.09% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-2 @ 4.72% (-0.0020000000000007 -0)
1-3 @ 2.76% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
2-3 @ 2.07%
0-3 @ 1.84% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.93%
Total : 29.49%

rhs 2.0


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