Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

May 2, 2023 at 11pm UK

Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo

Nublense
2 - 1
Aucas

Rubio (79'), Vilches (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Otero (24')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Nublense and Aucas.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nublense

Last Game: Flamengo 2-0 Nublense
Thursday, April 20 at 1.30am in Copa Libertadores

Aucas

Last Game: Racing 3-2 Aucas
Thursday, April 20 at 11pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nublense win with a probability of 45.42%. A win for Aucas had a probability of 29.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nublense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Aucas win was 0-1 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Nublense would win this match.

Result
Nublense	Draw	Aucas
45.42% ( 0.23)	25.24% ( -0.04)	29.33% ( -0.19)

Both teams to score 54.47% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.14% (

0.08)

48.85% (

-0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.05% (

0.07)

70.95% (

-0.08)

Nublense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.48% (

0.14)

21.51% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.43% (

0.21)

54.57% (

-0.22)

Aucas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.4% (

-0.1)

30.6% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.17% (

-0.11)

66.83% (

0.11)

Score Analysis

Nublense 45.42%

Aucas 29.33%

Draw 25.24%

Nublense	Draw	Aucas
1-0 @ 10.11% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.2% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 7.77% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.71% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 3.98% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.79% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.81% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.53% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.44% Total : 45.42%	1-1 @ 11.97% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.58% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.45% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( 0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.24%	0-1 @ 7.8% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 7.09% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 2.8% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.05% Total : 29.33%