Copa Libertadores | Group Stage
Apr 5, 2023 at 11pm UK
Estadio Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda
Flamengo

Aucas
2 - 1
Flamengo

Castillo (58'), Ordonez (85')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Franca (39')
Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Aucas and Flamengo.

Form, Standings, Stats

Aucas

:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:
Last Game: Athletico PR 4-0 Aucas
Friday, May 28 at 1.30am in Copa Sudamericana
:no data 356|l|156:DIVision:.!d!.:Sport:1:

Flamengo

All competitions
Last Game: Flamengo 1-0 Independiente (4-5 pen.)
Wednesday, March 1 at 12.30am in CONMEBOL Recopa

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 55.1%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Aucas had a probability of 21%.

The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.15%) and 1-2 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.36%), while for an Aucas win it was 1-0 (6.65%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.

Result
AucasDrawFlamengo
21% (-0.171 -0.17)23.9% (0.119 0.12)55.1% (0.052 0.05)
Both teams to score 50.45% (-0.598 -0.6)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.82% (-0.675 -0.68)50.17% (0.674 0.67)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.86% (-0.604 -0.6)72.13% (0.60299999999999 0.6)
Aucas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.58% (-0.557 -0.56)38.41% (0.556 0.56)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.83% (-0.536 -0.54)75.16% (0.536 0.54)
Flamengo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.92% (-0.22999999999999 -0.23)18.08% (0.229 0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.99% (-0.394 -0.39)49% (0.394 0.39)
Score Analysis
    Aucas 21%
    Flamengo 55.08%
    Draw 23.89%
AucasDrawFlamengo
1-0 @ 6.65% (0.081 0.08)
2-1 @ 5.44% (-0.056 -0.06)
2-0 @ 3.18% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
3-1 @ 1.73% (-0.045 -0.04)
3-2 @ 1.48% (-0.049 -0.05)
3-0 @ 1.01% (-0.018 -0.02)
Other @ 1.51%
Total : 21%
1-1 @ 11.36% (0.049999999999999 0.05)
0-0 @ 6.95% (0.187 0.19)
2-2 @ 4.65% (-0.082999999999999 -0.08)
Other @ 0.94%
Total : 23.89%
0-1 @ 11.87% (0.23 0.23)
0-2 @ 10.15% (0.12 0.12)
1-2 @ 9.72% (-0.026 -0.03)
0-3 @ 5.79% (0.029000000000001 0.03)
1-3 @ 5.54% (-0.056 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.65% (-0.068 -0.07)
0-4 @ 2.48% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
1-4 @ 2.37% (-0.042 -0.04)
2-4 @ 1.13% (-0.038 -0.04)
Other @ 3.38%
Total : 55.08%

How you voted: Aucas vs Flamengo

Aucas
0.0%
Draw
14.3%
Flamengo
85.7%
7