Copa Libertadores | Second Round | 2nd Leg

Mar 1, 2023 at 12am UK

Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Cristal
5 - 1
Nacional

(Sporting Cristal win 5-3 on aggregate)

Avila (46', 67'), Ignacio (74'), Lora (89'), Corozo (90+5')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Caballero (47')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Second Round clash between Sporting Cristal and Club Nacional.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Cristal

Last Game: Nacional 2-0 Cristal
Tuesday, February 21 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores

Club Nacional

Last Game: Nacional 2-0 Cristal
Tuesday, February 21 at 10pm in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Cristal win with a probability of 55.56%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Club Nacional had a probability of 19.27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Cristal win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.37%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.72%), while for a Club Nacional win it was 0-1 (7.4%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Cristal would win this match.

Result
Sporting Cristal	Draw	Club Nacional
55.56% ( 0.19)	25.17% ( -0.03)	19.27% ( -0.17)

Both teams to score 44.36% (

-0.17)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.05% (

-0.09)

56.95% (

0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.15% (

-0.07)

77.85% (

0.08)

Sporting Cristal Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.5% (

0.04)

20.5% (

-0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.01% (

0.06)

52.99% (

-0.06)

Club Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.8% (

-0.24)

44.2% (

0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.71% (

-0.2)

80.29% (

0.2)

Score Analysis

Sporting Cristal 55.55%

Club Nacional 19.27%

Draw 25.17%

Sporting Cristal	Draw	Club Nacional
1-0 @ 14.36% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 11.37% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.29% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 6.01% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.91% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.94% ( 0) Other @ 3.29% Total : 55.55%	1-1 @ 11.72% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 9.06% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 3.79% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.59% Total : 25.17%	0-1 @ 7.4% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.79% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.02% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.73% Total : 19.27%