Copa Libertadores

Copa Libertadores | First Round | 2nd Leg

Feb 16, 2024 at 12.30am UK

Estadio Defensores del Chaco

Nacional
3 - 0
Aucas

(Club Nacional win 3-1 on aggregate)

Ariel Duarte Garcete (12', 31'), Duarte (12', 31'), Fredy Arevalo Portillo (55'), Arevalo (55')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Gabriel Mina Jara (77'), Mina (77'), Briones (84'), Briones (84')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores First Round clash between Club Nacional and Aucas.

Form, Standings, Stats

Club Nacional

Last Game: Aucas 1-0 Nacional
Friday, February 9 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Aucas

Last Game: Aucas 1-0 Nacional
Friday, February 9 at 12.30am in Copa Libertadores

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Nacional win with a probability of 51.07%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Aucas had a probability of 22.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Club Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (9.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.29%), while for an Aucas win it was 0-1 (8.29%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Club Nacional would win this match.

Result
Club Nacional	Draw	Aucas
51.07% ( 0.21)	26.32% ( 0.04)	22.61% ( -0.25)

Both teams to score 45.58% (

-0.37)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

42.35% (

-0.34)

57.65% (

0.34)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

21.59% (

-0.27)

78.41% (

0.27)

Club Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.32% (

-0.05)

22.68% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.67% (

-0.07)

56.33% (

0.07)

Aucas Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

58.95% (

-0.44)

41.05% (

0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.4% (

-0.39)

77.6% (

0.39)

Score Analysis

Club Nacional 51.06%

Aucas 22.61%

Draw 26.31%

Club Nacional	Draw	Aucas
1-0 @ 13.81% ( 0.16) 2-0 @ 10.24% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 9.12% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 5.07% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 1.88% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.67% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.75% Total : 51.06%	1-1 @ 12.29% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.31% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 4.06% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.65% Total : 26.31%	0-1 @ 8.29% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.48% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 3.69% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.63% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.23% Total : 22.61%