Copa Sudamericana | Group Stage

Apr 3, 2025 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Manoel Barradas

Vitoria
1 - 1
U. Catolica

FT(HT: 0-0)

Londono (54')
Anangono (12'), Luis Castillo Saa (19'), Cacciabue (37'), David Lara Medrano (90+4')
Luis Castillo Saa (64')

Coverage of the Copa Sudamericana Group Stage clash between Vitoria and Universidad Catolica.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitoria

All competitions

Last Game: Juventude 2-0 Vitoria
Saturday, March 29 at 9.30pm in Brasileiro

Goals
for

Universidad Catolica

All competitions

Copa Sudamericana

Last Game: U. Catolica 0-0 Aucas (4-2 pen.)
Friday, March 7 at 2am in Copa Sudamericana

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria win with a probability of 42.62%. A win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.73%). The likeliest Universidad Catolica win was 0-1 (9.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.

Result
Vitoria	Draw	Universidad Catolica
42.62% ( -1.37)	26.65% ( 0.32)	30.73% ( 1.05)

Both teams to score 50.78% (

-0.48)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.02% (

-0.86)

53.98% (

0.86)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.58% (

-0.72)

75.42% (

0.72)

Vitoria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.92% (

-1.06)

25.08% (

1.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.23% (

-1.49)

59.77% (

1.5)

Universidad Catolica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.77% (

0.31)

32.23% (

-0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.28% (

0.36)

68.72% (

-0.35)

Score Analysis

Vitoria 42.61%

Universidad Catolica 30.73%

Draw 26.64%

Vitoria	Draw	Universidad Catolica
1-0 @ 11.17% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.75% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 7.73% ( -0.22) 3-1 @ 4.04% ( -0.21) 3-0 @ 3.56% ( -0.22) 3-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.12) 4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.12) Other @ 2.44% Total : 42.61%	1-1 @ 12.65% ( 0.14) 0-0 @ 8.08% ( 0.27) 2-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.64%	0-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.38) 1-2 @ 7.17% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.26) 1-3 @ 2.71% ( 0.08) 0-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 1.87% ( -0) Other @ 2.7% Total : 30.73%