Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Racing de Montevideo win with a probability of 41.5%. A draw had a probability of 30.4% and a win for Cerro Largo had a probability of 28.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Racing de Montevideo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.6%) and 2-1 (7.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.32%), while for a Cerro Largo win it was 0-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.