Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 54.69%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for San Antonio Bulo Bulo had a probability of 21.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.81%) and 0-2 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%), while for a San Antonio Bulo Bulo win it was 1-0 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Penarol would win this match.