Copa Libertadores | Group Stage

Apr 2, 2025 at 11pm UK

Estadio Jose Amalfitani

Velez Sarsfield
2 - 1
Penarol

Mauricio Carrizo (80'), Montoro (90+5')
Baeza (27'), Lagos (55'), Montoro (90+6')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Fernandez (48')
Sosa (30'), Baez (57')

Coverage of the Copa Libertadores Group Stage clash between Velez Sarsfield and Penarol.

Form, Standings, Stats

Velez Sarsfield

All competitions

Last Game: Velez Sarsfield 0-1 Deportivo Riestra
Saturday, March 29 at 12.30am in Argentine Primera Division

Goals
for

Penarol

All competitions

Last Game: Penarol 0-2 Cerro Largo
Monday, March 31 at 12.30am in Uruguayan Primera Division

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 47.38%. A draw had a probability of 27.8% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.67%) and 2-1 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.79%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (9.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Velez Sarsfield would win this match.

Result
Velez Sarsfield	Draw	Penarol
47.38% ( 0.03)	27.81% ( -0.01)	24.8% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 43.8% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.93% (

0.03)

61.06% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.96% (

0.02)

81.04% (

-0.02)

Velez Sarsfield Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.1% (

0.03)

25.9% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.11% (

0.04)

60.88% (

-0.04)

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.1% (

-0)

40.89% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.54% (

-0)

77.46% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Velez Sarsfield 47.38%

Penarol 24.8%

Draw 27.8%

Velez Sarsfield	Draw	Penarol
1-0 @ 14.3% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.67% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.64% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.35% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.89% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.74% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.47% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.32% ( 0) Other @ 2% Total : 47.38%	1-1 @ 12.79% 0-0 @ 10.59% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 3.86% ( 0) Other @ 0.56% Total : 27.8%	0-1 @ 9.47% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 5.72% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.23% ( -0) 1-3 @ 1.71% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.26% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.15% ( 0) Other @ 1.26% Total : 24.8%