Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Velez Sarsfield win with a probability of 55.56%. A draw had a probability of 28.1% and a win for San Martin de San Juan had a probability of 16.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Velez Sarsfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.06%) and 2-1 (7.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.07%), while for a San Martin de San Juan win it was 0-1 (8.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 19.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Velez Sarsfield in this match.