Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 48.73%. A draw had a probability of 30.5% and a win for San Martin de San Juan had a probability of 20.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.07%) and 2-1 (7.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.41%), while for a San Martin de San Juan win it was 0-1 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 18.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Gimnasia in this match.