Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 49.98%. A draw had a probability of 29.2% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 20.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.13%) and 2-1 (7.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.57%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (9.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.