Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 41.64%. A draw had a probability of 32.3% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 26.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.99%) and 2-1 (6.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.35%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.