Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 43.41%. A draw had a probability of 31.9% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (7.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (16.1%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Independiente in this match.