Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 45.46%. A draw had a probability of 30.1% and a win for Union had a probability of 24.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (7.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.69%), while for a Union win it was 0-1 (10.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.