Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 56.61%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Deportivo Riestra had a probability of 15.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.52%) and 2-1 (7.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (14.43%), while for a Deportivo Riestra win it was 0-1 (8.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.