Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 41.61%. A draw had a probability of 32.7% and a win for Union had a probability of 25.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.04%) and 2-1 (6.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (17.03%), while for a Union win it was 0-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.