Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 42.74%. A draw had a probability of 31.4% and a win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.19%) and 2-1 (7.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.1%), while for a Newell's Old Boys win it was 0-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Union would win this match.